In preparing this talk I found there have been a few things which I thought were facts, the truth, which on applying measurement were actually closer to myth. Having only been in the region for 18 months, I have listened to the locals and those who have gone before me. I don't want to be a naturally sceptical person and so absorbed all this knowledge and have continued to profess the same.
It's easy to see how it happens. We all develop ideas of how or why something is as it is. The intention is that this is an hypothesis and with measurement we will prove or disprove this educated guess. But we get busy and others are accepting of our crystal ball analysis and the measurement just seems to be pushed to the back and then becomes unnecessary as the original hypothesis becomes truth and the accepted way things are.
At SKAL I decided to talk about things that everyone knows already about the Wairarapa:
- Wellington, Manawatu and Hawkes Bay are Wairarapa's biggest domestic markets
- the Masterton to Auckland Air NZ service is a business commuter flight for Wairarapa locals
- there's a decline in international guest nights
The accepted truth is that Wellington, Manawatu and Hawkes Bay, in that order, are the biggest domestic markets for Wairarapa.
Well with the recent access to credit card transaction volume and spend data, we are finally able to have a closer look at the details of this wonderful story. It's no surprise that Wellington does prove to be far and away the biggest domestic market. In fact, yes fact, Wellington is three times greater in terms of credit card transaction volume than second placed Manawatu.
But the bronze medal, third most voluminous domestic market for Wairarapa turns out to be Auckland. Probably not really that surprising being the largest population base in the country. But their exclusion from the original version of the story is understandable being they're geographically as far removed from Wairarapa as you can get in the North Island. And would they really drive this far, and down SH2 for leisure?
Yes Hawkes Bay is next but even then there is Canterbury to watch closely which from time to time pips Hawkes Bay on the monthly credit card transaction data.
The Masterton Auckland air service
Everyone knows that the only people using the Masterton to Auckland air service are people who live in Wairarapa. After all, the flights to Auckland depart at 7.00am and get you to Auckland in time for a days work. And then they return at 7.00pm in time to get back home for dinner with the family. And these flight timings couldn't possibly work for people flying to Masterton.
With some recent drive to develop the air services in and out of Masterton we have undertaken some research of travellers on the departing morning flight. Surveying every departing passenger for a month (it's only an 18 seat Beech) has given a new truth to be told.
Who would have thought that 20% of people travelling on the flight were actually not from Masterton, or even from the Wairarapa. Not too surprising that most of these non-locals are from Auckland, but also Northland, Hamilton and even Australia and one from Spain.
Now we have a different story to tell and it includes the possibility for inbound leisure flights for Aucklanders on bigger aircraft.
International guest nights are in decline
Yes we've heard from every corner that apart from a recent turn in international guest night volumes, that they are in decline. Many Wairarapa operators discussing their slow season have declared this truth.
This story could easily have snowballed into legend in Wairarapa except that like every region, we monitor the data to ensure the story de jeur is actually based on data. The fact is that YE March 2012 and Wairarapa was one of only ten regions to improve international guest nights on the previous year. Then for the YE March 2013 and Wairarapa was one of only five of those ten to improve again.
April 2013 and we've just had a 45% increase on international guest nights against the previous April.
Building an hypothesis is great fun and quite stimulating but make sure it does not become truth until the data has been analysed and the facts are available for the new story.
How many things do you accept as truth without having seen the data?
David Hancock is general manager of Destination Wairarapa, the regional tourism organisation for Wairarapa, New Zealand and would be delighted to receive comments on this or any other topic.
http://www.wairarapanz.com
