How did the RWC 2011 Crystal Ball perform?

As the dust from hundreds of campervans heading north and triple the normal passengers at Wellington airport settles on Hutt Valley, it's time to evaluate how reality tackled my expectations of the RWC.


When my crystal ball came out of its box it was still stained with faint images of the 2005 Lions Tour.  The Top 10 Holiday Park over flowing with campervans for days and local bars filled with an army of British supporters doing their absolute best to drink the place dry.  But realigning the all seeing orb with the 2011 stars we could immediately see a different event was coming our way with the RWC.  RWC has more than four times the matches and 10 times the teams competing with the same multiples of visitors but it is simultaneously spread to the four corners of New Zealand.


So crystal ball, tell me, what should our little corner of New Zealand expect?

• busiest September and October to date but not to the levels of summer
• revenue up but not to the levels of summer
• accommodation full over game dates
• no need for long term campervan over flow

We can past post these RWC expectations but it's too early to put the crystal ball away just yet.


Busiest September & October
Well there's no doubt about it, September was the busiest on record.  International visitors through the Hutt City i-SITE Visitor Centre were 110% up on September last year and overall visitors were up 26%.  All great news but as expected these visitor numbers are still short of what we will see between the summer months of January and March.


October is still to fully deliver all its visitors but 1/3 into the month and the i-SITE is half way to last October's visitor volumes.  The rescheduling of school holidays should now fill in where the departing rugby crowds left off.


Revenue will be up
We didn't get carried away with forecasting September and October revenue too far up on normal levels for these months.  We expected September to be an extra month on the shoulder of Spring and again not to the levels of summer.  This sounded like a reasonable argument given the expected increase in visitors and having just achieved 17 straight months of record revenue through the i-SITE.


However these visitors had all pre-booked.  Months and years ago they had booked their accommodation, buses, trains and even activities.  The i-SITE team over the last three years had become a sales force and now, despite their best efforts, they were returning to be an information service.  September ended up being our third best and down 13% on the same month last year.


Now the crowds have left us we are already seeing a return to a likely record revenue October with school holiday traffic.


Accommodation will be full on game days
As expected, the game days did bring in the demand for accommodation.  However it was really only the double header quarter final weekend which totally filled the Hutt Valley.  On every other game day there were some rooms which could be found with a bit of digging.  But nobody is complaining.


No need for long term campervan overflow
There were three nights where the local campervan park over flowed into the streets but this was largely taken up by the Petone Rugby Club, Trentham Racecourse and foreshore car parks.


If there was one thing which did surprise me a bit, it was the volume of campervans.  Quarter final weekend in particular was busier with vans than expected.  Still the consultation with the Top 10 more than a year ago determined that we shouldn't bother with any overflow and given that it would only have been needed on a handful of nights, this appears to have been a good decision.


Don't put the crystal ball away just yet
What's going to happen next?

• has the RWC soaked up all the domestic travel for this year.  Those tickets were expensive and is that the money New Zealand families would have normally used on their annual summer holiday?
• will the excellent media coverage the Hutt Valley, Wellington and New Zealand received bring in more visitors this summer?
• the RWC was able to gain priority from visitors over the global financial crisis, unemployment and recessions but will our New Zealand summer be able to do the same?
• a busy September and October! Is this a story to leverage and extend the shoulder season for next year?
• who's going to win the RWC and is this a story to leverage for particular markets?

RWC has been brilliant but the impacts, positive and otherwise, have not yet fully played out on our tourism industry.  Yes it's definitely too early to put the crystal ball away just yet.



David Hancock is the visitor development manager for Hutt City, Wellington, New Zealand and would be delighted to receive comments on this or any other topic. http://www.huttvalleynz.com/
http://www.facebook.com/HuttCity.Wellington